2022/23 Superliga xG: Who’s Hot & Who’s Not (Part 1)
Football analytics maestro & friend of the podcast Kasper Pedersbæk writes about what we can learn from the Superliga teams’ xG numbers for the current season…
The winter is not just coming, it’s already here, which means that the football league in Denmark is hibernating, waiting to re-emerge and blossom again. The action resumes at the end of February, with a fierce sprint expected given there are 5 rounds before the league splits into championship playoff and relegation playoff groups. But what’s the situation like reviewing team performances using the expecting goal (xG) tool?
Part 1 focuses on the current top 6. Here’s what the data says (with xG difference in brackets)…
FC Nordsjælland (xGD: +2.04)
At the top of the league glancing down at the 11 other teams we find FC Nordsjælland. The league leaders are trending up, but are also a team which managed to get the most out of the positive figures they generated on expected goals difference. In other words – they often emerged from games with wins in situations where other teams would have most likely only managed a draw, owing to the quality of their finishing, good fortune or a combination thereof.
Viborg (xGD: +6.83)
Next in line we have a team with impressive data behind their performances. Viborg FF has got the results the data predicted they would. Defending their own goal with better-than-average efficiency in the league and showing quality in offense. Their ability to generate more chances than they concede has been trending up all season – a truly impressive performance from the from central Jylland side.
FC København (xGD: +7.5)
Hailing from the centre of the capital we find FC København, one of the clubs that has already changed managers this season - an action which has had the effect of strengthening them thusfar. At the beginning of the season we saw a decrease in expected goals difference, ultimately resulting in them hitting negative figures. Under new head coach Jacob Neestrup they’ve re-gained a significant plus on xGD and have been more effective at converting chances to goals, although there remains further untapped potential to dig into. The numbers suggest they are a team that are stronger than their league position and points tally suggest.
Silkeborg (xGD: +1.58)
Last season saw Silkeborg produce a spectacular run of results to reach third place, winning medals for the first time in over two decades. This season sees them sitting in 4th place, but the numbers tell us that for some time they’ve been riding their luck, producing way above what should be expected looking at xG and actual goals whilst being average defensively compared to the rest of the league. They’re trending down somewhat, so it’ll be interesting to see how the club from Søhøjlandet perform this spring.
OB (xGD: -8.92)
Looking at the league table OB, the leading team from the island of Fyn, find themselves in the top 6, but the data tells us another story, suggesting they too are either riding their luck – or benefitting from spectacularly good players. Over the course of the season so far, OB have overperformed their xG while their opponents undperformed theirs. That, combined with having lost some key players make this spring look decisive for OB. The questions remains as to whether their overperformance on xG can continue for the remainder of the season.
Randers (xGD: +0.97)
Last team dipping their toes in the top 6 at this moment is Randers. Numbers-wise, Thomas Thomasberg’s side find themselves a little above league average at closing down their opponents and limiting their shot production, a little better than league average at producing shots themselves. Balancing around the 0-line of expected goals difference makes Randers a tough team to predict – expect plenty of games that are on a knife-edge in the long run, but also a team with clear ability to remain in the top 6.
