2022/23 Superliga xG: Who’s Hot & Who’s Not (Part 2)
Football analytics maestro & friend of the podcast Kasper Pedersbæk returns to write about what we can learn from the Superliga teams’ xG numbers for the current season. Part 1 focused on the current top 6, while part 2 focuses on the bottom 6. Here’s what the data says (with xG difference in brackets)…
FC Midtjylland (xGD: +2.04)
Positioned just outside the top 6, looking up at the glamorous life of the top 6, we find FC Midtjylland. For a team who have so often in recent years played the protagonist, it’s an unusally lowly position for the club from Herning to find themselves in. The frustrating thing for FCM fans is that the team posess a championship winning defensive unit, only allowing 17.20 xG against (which opponents converted to 19 goals) during the 17 played games. But – and here’s the kicker – they have a horrific ability to produce shots. 19.24 xG and 20 goals – pretty average in terms of the league, but they are trending down. Not an autumn to remember for FCM. Add the fact that both Evander and Dreyer have departed and there’s work to be done for FCM.
AGF (xGD: +5.54)
In 8th place in the league we look to Aarhus. AGF have a true premium defensive setup: 13.43 xG against Jesper Hansen’s goal (resulting in 15 actual goals). But, like FCM above them, a declining offensive ability means that AGF is a club trending towards the 0-line for expected goals difference (18.97 xG and 18 scored goals). In other words – AGF leans towards a run of games decided by either pure luck or extreme quality of players. In the end the question remains as to whether AGF can rebuild their offensive unit and make a push for the championship group.
AC Horsens (xGD: -6.39)
On the eastern shores of Jylland we find AC Horsens, sitting 9th in the Superliga. This season, Den Gule Fare (The Yellow Peril) have proven to be below average both in terms of creating shots themselves and in limiting the opponents ability to create shots against them. This isn’t a phenomenon confined to the final rounds of the winter season, the team has been trending downwards for a while. They have had a hard time generating a positive expected goals difference – over time it means that the opponents have greater possibilities of to win games, unless Horsens have a sheer run of good fortune or quality players consistently overperforming the average. The Jylannd side must look down in the table, not up, to ensure their survival.
Brøndby (xGD: -6.95)
We find one of the season’s most disappointing teams at spot number 10. In 2021 Brøndby celebrated their 11 th championship - less than two years later they find themselves crawling around in the relegation mud. And the data doesn’t suggest that they could’ve achieved much more. They boast one of the worst defensive performances this season, allowing the second worst xG against in the division. And to make matters worse the offensive ability seems like it couldn’t blow a hole in a wall of paper. The recipe is simple for new coach Jesper Sørensen - tighten the defence and build an offensive unit able to produce shots - and do so simultaneous while the season is running away. Time is of the essence for Brøndby who cannot afford to let the rebuild take long to bear fruit.
AaB (xGD: -3.42)
Deep down the table we find AaB as number 11. With a 7 point gap to safety, the team from Aalborg have their work cut out going into the second half of the season. Yes, the club has a weak offensive unit, barely creating 1.0 xG per game, but limiting the opponents to 20.48 xG against and still conceding 28 goals tells a story of a long run of bad luck – or simple lack in quality at among other things the goalkeeper position. AaB isn’t dead and buried yet, boosting their shot production and playing on par defensively can give them a solid run for recovery and save their position in the Danish top tier.
Lyngby (xGD: -4.94)
Lyngby has been preparing for life in the second tier during the winter break sending away several key profiles from a squad already lacking in profiles. The season has placed Lyngby exactly where their data puts them - last. The problem is simple: limited offensive power in creating shots and even more limited ability to convert shots to goals, and a defensive unit allowing more than league average. Lyngby has been trending down all season and has had a continuous run of negative expected goal difference so unfortunately their league position comes as no surprise.
